Tesla has revealed its AI product/self-driving roadmap for the subsequent few months, however it raises extra questions than it solutions.
Tesla official AI Roadmap with self-driving software program releases
September 2024
- v12.5.2 with ~3x improved miles between needed interventions
- v12.5.2 on AI3 laptop (unified fashions for AI3 and AI4)
- Truly Sensible Summon
- Cybertruck Autopark
- Eye-tracking with sun shades
- Finish-to-Finish community on freeway
- Cybertruck FSD
October 2024
- Unpark, Park and Reverse in FSD
- v13 with ~6x improved miles between needed interventions
Q1 2025
- FSD in Europe (pending regulatory approval)
- FSD in China (pending regulatory approval)
Electrek’s Take
The primary downside is enchancment in opposition to what? Tesla has at all times refused to launch FSD intervention information so we wouldn’t even know if v12.5.2 can obtain a “3x enchancment in miles between needed intervention.”
As we beforehand reported, we do have some crowdsourced information, and Elon Musk acknowledged it positively, so we’d as effectively use that since Tesla refuses to launch official information.
For v12.4, the CEO stated that it should come with out steering wheel nag and will probably be in a position to drive “5 to 10x extra miles per intervention“.
v12.4 by no means made it to a large launch and v12.5 was imagined to go broad launch final month and it solely made it to about 5% of the FSD fleet the final time I checked.
Now, as an alternative of a 5 to 10x enhance on v12.4, which was a flop, he’s now speaking a couple of “~3x enchancment” this month with the discharge of v12.5.
Let’s examine the info to date. Based mostly on the crowdsourced information, the typical of the v12.5.1 variations is 32 miles between disengagement and 128 miles between important disengagement.
This compares to 30 miles between disengagement and 189 miles between important disengagement for v12.3.6, which is the final FSD model that went into a large launch earlier this 12 months:
Needless to say to attain Tesla’s promise of an unsupervised self-driving system, it might doubtless should be at between 50,000 and 100,000 miles between important disengagement, aka 390x over the present information.
Based mostly on Elon’s new timeline and in comparison with this information, we needs to be at round ~400 miles between “needed interventions ” by the top of the month.
The time period “needed interventions” can be problematic and raises questions.
The crowdsourced information can be attempting to differentiate “important” disengagements and it is sensible since many disengagements don’t have anything to do with the extent of security in FSD. Some disengagement are attributable to consolation and frustration on the driving force’s half.
With v12.5.1, lots of the disengagement should do with navigation errors and velocity. The previous, Tesla will definitely want to repair. The latter is extra problematic because it truly affect the info.
Many FSD drivers complain that the most recent replace is drives extraordinarily gradual. This could assist with the efficiency and scale back important disengagement, however it is not going to assist general disengagement as many drivers simply develop annoyed, myself included, and take management of the car to start out driving at extra cheap speeds.
So sure, as per my headline, this roadmap brings extra questions than it solutions primarily attributable to the truth that Tesla refuses to launch intervention information and but, it makes use of will increase within the metric to trace progress.