Tesla is declaring victory on attaining its September milestones for its autonomy roadmap, however we see crucial milestone lacking.
Earlier this month, Tesla launched an AI product/self-driving roadmap that included milestones the crew aimed to perform within the coming months.
With September coming to an in depth and Tesla beginning the rollout of Supervised FSD for Cybertruck, Elon Musk sycophants are already celebrating Tesla engaging in all of the milestones:
Ashok Elluswamy, Tesla’s head of autonomous software program, and Musk himself commented on the submit in approval.
Nonetheless, as Elluswamy factors out, there’s already a small caveat that just some Cybertrucks are at present getting FSD, virtually a yr after the primary deliveries, and the “end-to-end on freeway”, which is using neural nets all through the entire freeway driving course of, is simply being shipped on Cybetrucks proper now.
Subsequently, the overwhelming majority of Tesla autos with FSD gained’t get it in September as deliberate.
With that mentioned, there’s a a lot larger drawback with claiming victory on the September milestone than end-to-end on highways: interventions.
Arguably, the largest declare in Tesla’s autonomy milestones in September is FSD v12.5.2 attaining a “~3x enchancment miles between essential interventions.”
As we reported when Tesla first launched this roadmap, it is a problematic aim within the first place as Tesla has by no means launched any official miles between interventions information, which brings the query: 3x from what?
With out official information from Tesla, we’ve to depend on crowdsourced information, which Musk himself has beforehand positively remarked on.
We at present have simply over 2,500 miles of FSD v12.5.2 crowdsourced information and it reveals 35 miles between vital disengagement and 17 miles between disengagement:
Now once more, Tesla by no means specified a 3x enchancment from what?
If we go from a mean of all of the 12.5.1 variations, it reveals that v12.5.2 is definitely a. regression as a result of over greater than 14,000 miles these variations have averaged 174 miles between vital disengagements:
Simply in case, we are able to additionally examine it with FSD v11, however that additionally expose v12.5.2 as a regression:
The one clear optimistic factor about FSD’s enchancment that we are able to collect from this information is that Tesla went from a mean vital disengagement each 109 miles with FSD v11 to 1 each 166 miles on common with all v12 variations mixed.
However even that’s a 50% enchancment – each “~150%” enchancment that Tesla talked about, which once more was for v12.5.2 towards who is aware of?
Electrek’s Take
This shifting of the goalpost and fixed reward from sycophants is sending the flawed message to Tesla.
I’m not a hater. I can admit that Tesla has made some enhancements in September. I definitely wouldn’t name delivery FSD on Cybertruck a win after virtually a yr following the primary deliveries, however the brand new driver monitoring system on FSD v12.5.2 is a giant enchancment in addition to auto-speed controls.
It makes the system extra snug and helpful. It feels much less like a process of coaching Tesla’s self-driving system.
Nonetheless, it doesn’t change the chilly undeniable fact that Tesla is nowhere close to the place it must be by way of miles between disengagement so as to see a path towards a real unsupervised self-driving system, which is what Tesla has been promising for years.
Tesla wants a 1,000x enchancment in miles between vital disengagement, and the truth that it’s at present celebrating a nonexistent “~3x” improve ought to be worrying to individuals.